Business through the Lens of Successful Business Woman

Business Woman In the bustling world of commerce and entrepreneurship, the realm of business stands as a canvas for visionaries and innovators to paint their destinies. Amidst this vibrant landscape, we encounter the compelling story of a successful business woman – an emblem of determination, resilience, and brilliance. In this evocative exploration, we unravel the essence of business, drawing … Read More

Schedule for Week of September 18, 2022


by Calculated Risk on 9/17/2022 08:11:00 AM

The key reports this week are August Housing Starts and Existing Home sales.

The FOMC meets this week and is expected to raise rates 75 bp.

—– Monday, Sept 19th —–

10:00 AM: The September NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 47, down from 49 in August.

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Calculated Risk: Predicting the Next Recession


In that 2013 post, I wrote:

The next recession will probably be caused by one of the following (from least likely to most likely):

3) An exogenous event such as a pandemic, significant military conflict, disruption of energy supplies for any reason, a major natural disaster (meteor strike, super volcano, etc), and a number of other low probability

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Four High Frequency Indicators for the Economy

These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment.    It is interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic subsides.  Notes: I’ve added back gasoline supplied to see if there is an impact from higher gasoline prices.

—– Airlines: Transportation Security Administration —–

The TSA is providing daily travel numbers.

This data is as of September 11th.

TSA Traveler Data Click on graph
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Early Look at 2023 Cost-Of-Living Adjustments and Maximum

by Calculated Risk on 9/13/2022 08:48:00 AM

The BLS reported this morning:

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 8.7
percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 291.629 (1982-84=100). For the month,
the index declined 0.2 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.

CPI-W is the index that is used to calculate

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Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey

by Calculated Risk on 9/14/2022 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 1.2 percent from
one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage
Applications Survey for the week ending September 9, 2022. This week’s results include an adjustment
for the observance of Labor Day.

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Despite challenges, nonprofits see rise in giving

Nonprofits received continued support from Delawareans as 2020’s tide of charitable donations bled into 2021.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, charitable giving peaked in Delaware, reflecting growth in the United States more broadly.

Charities in the U.S. received a record $471 billion in donations in 2020, according to Giving USA. This number reflects an increase from the previous year’s donation

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SoFi office building heading to auction block

The Brandywine Corporate Center, home to online lender SoFi, is heading to auction in August. | PHOTO COURTESY OF NEWMARK/COSTAR

WILMINGTON – The Brandywine Corporate Center, a Class A office building that is home to major online lender SoFi, among other tenants, is heading to the auction block in August.

The auction, which will run online from Aug. 9 to

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